Could Low Voter Turnout Be a Game-Changer in Tuesday’s Historic L.A. School Board Election?
This article has been created in collaboration with LA School Report.
Predicting the voter turnout in Los Angeles city elections is a tough task. Even the city clerk doesn’t attempt it. However, one thing that can be guaranteed is that, despite the highest amount of money ever spent on a school board election in U.S. history, the voter turnout will still be disappointingly low.
Previous LA Unified elections have consistently shown minimal interest in the school board. George McKenna, who ran for office in South Los Angeles, expressed his embarrassment regarding the low voter turnout he received in the past. He received less than 5 percent of eligible voters in his district during a runoff in August 2014. McKenna acknowledges that many people are unaware of who they are or what the school board does, despite its importance.
During a special election in June 2014, McKenna ran against six opponents and managed to secure nearly 6 percent of eligible voters in his district. However, in the August runoff, the school board seat was the sole item on the ballot, resulting in less than 5 percent voter turnout in his district across the 324 precincts.
In 2015, when McKenna ran unopposed, around 9 percent of the eligible voters cast their ballots for him.
Generally, school board races don’t attract many voters, and the turnout is even worse when they are stand-alone items on the ballot. This election will feature the school board race and Amendment C regarding city police on the city ballots, along with a runoff for the Los Angeles City Council in certain parts of District 6.
When other items are included on the ballot, voter turnout tends to be higher. In the 1997 primary mayoral race, 29 percent of LA Unified district voters participated. In District 4, where school board president Steve Zimmer is currently engaged in a competitive race against Nick Melvoin, 28 percent of the electorate voted in 1997. In District 6, where Kelly Gonez and Imelda Padilla are fighting to replace Mónica Ratliff, 29 percent of voters turned out. However, when it came to the runoff in District 4 that year, only 13 percent bothered to show up. The winner, Valerie Fields, received 7 percent of eligible voters in the district, which amounted to 26,659 votes.
District 4 saw a significant increase in voter turnout when Fields ran for re-election, resulting in the largest turnout for any school board race in the past 20 years. The current situation in the west side district exhibits some striking similarities.
In the June 2001 race, 38 percent of eligible voters in the school district turned out to vote. It was described as an aggressive race in the Los Angeles Times, as Fields, who had union support, was pushed into a runoff by self-proclaimed "independent thinker" Marlene Canter, backed by then-Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. Some unpleasant incidents occurred, as Canter accused Fields supporters of vandalizing her neon lawn signs stating "L.A. School Board Member Valerie Fields has FAILED." This race set a record for the most funds ever raised for a school board race at the time, with $4 million, surpassing the local city council race between renowned contenders former state Sen. Tom Hayden and ex-federal prosecutor Jack Weiss. Canter ultimately won against Fields.
Similarly, this year in District 4, an incumbent heavily supported by labor unions is facing a runoff against a candidate also supported by Riordan. The current campaign is the most expensive ever, nearly three times more than the previous record.
When Zimmer first won election to the board in the March 2009 primary with 57 percent of the vote, a significant 8 percent of his votes came from Beverly Hills, which has areas within the school district. In his primary win in March 2013, 7 percent of Zimmer’s vote came from the incorporated city of West Hollywood.
In another contested race, this time in District 6 in May 2013, Mónica Ratliff was significantly outspent by Antonio Sanchez. Voter turnout for the school board race was only 16 percent.
Mónica García, the longest-serving board member, attracted a mere 5 percent of voters in her district in District 2 during a special election in March 2006. Only 12 percent of eligible voters across 199 precincts participated in that election.
In March of this year, the voter turnout in the primary election among those in the school districts was higher at 16 percent. However, there were other items on the ballot, such as the mayoral race, which could have influenced the voter turnout.
The LA City Clerk’s office does not predict the number of people who will vote, but based on historical data, it is likely that the poll workers in District 4 and 6 will have a lot of free time.
For comprehensive coverage of the 2017 school board race, please read LA School Report’s articles.
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